UK mortgage holders will see their monthly payments jump to up to 30% of their income from about 20% over the past few decades, the boss of Barclays has said.
CS Venkatakrishnan, known as Venkat, said the sharp rise in interest rates will lead to a “huge income shock” by the end of next year.
He said during an interview at the Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit: “By our assumptions, for the median family income with the median mortgage, what they have paid as their mortgage or rental payments in the last two decades – the nineties to 2020 – was about 20 per cent of their income.
“That is going to be about 28 per cent to 30 per cent of their income. So there is a huge income shock.
“Obviously it affects consumption, and that is before you even bring in the other affects of inflation being food and energy, and basic goods and services.
“I think therefore what you will see ultimately is a slowdown in consumption – we are seeing it already.”
Barclays’ group chief executive, Venkat, has said the recent banking turmoil could result in less lending and more mergers between banks.
He said: “I think the phase of initial discovery is over, and I think there is going to be a longer term discovery and adjustment.
“The three banks that failed – Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, and First Republic – were the most obvious ones when people started look at asset pricing plans.”
But he said many other banks with smaller asset problems could start looking to sell portfolios and “heal themselves”.
“What that will probably mean is less lending”, he said.
Asked whether the recent US bank failure could be an opportunity for big banks to get bigger, Venkat said: “I think you will see more banks getting interested in some sort of merger.”