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(Bloomberg) — Moldova cleared a key hurdle as part of its bid to join the European Union in a set of votes on Sunday that may help break the Kremlin’s decades-long grip on the country. 

Some 42% of voters participated in a referendum to join the EU as of 6 p.m. local time, exceeding the one-third threshold required to validate the ballot, the country’s Central Electoral Commission said. The nation is also holding a presidential election, in which Maia Sandu is favored to win a second term. 

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The stakes are high in the former Soviet republic as the pro-EU government faced what it called an unprecedented effort to thwart the vote in a coordinated campaign. Polls show a majority of Moldovans favor EU accession as well as a new term for Sandu as she seeks to steer the country into the EU by the end of the decade. 

“I voted today for Moldovans to be able to decide their own fate, not anyone else,” Sandu said as she cast a ballot in the capital Chisinau. “Not based on the lies and the dirty money, but only the will of the people,” she added. Polls close at 9 p.m. local time, with initial results expected late on Sunday.  

One of Europe’s poorest nations, Moldova began EU accession talks this year after securing candidacy status alongside Ukraine in 2022. Sandu’s government has pledged to overhaul the nation’s justice system and bolster the economy to become a member by 2030. 

But Russia, which has dominated Moldova’s energy resources and political system since the collapse of the Soviet Union, has sought to block the country’s Western path. With the US and EU accusing Moscow of meddling in the elections, the chief Moldovan negotiator with the EU this week said Moscow had pumped some €100 million ($109 million) into an effort to disrupt the votes. 

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Moscow’s Orbit

The election commission said voting had taken place without major disruption. Still, police in the country reported incidents, including efforts to transport or bribe voters, photographing ballots, intimidation and scuffling.   

The Kremlin “categorically rejects” allegations that it’s interfering in Moldova’s electoral process, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, according to the state-run Tass news service.

Success for the referendum, which would anchor Moldova’s bid in the nation’s constitution, would be a boon to Sandu, a 52-year-old former World Bank official who has led Moldova since 2020 with an agenda to extricate the country from Moscow’s orbit and integrate it into the West. 

A procession of EU leaders has visited Chisinau in recent weeks, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz in August and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week. Sandu may face one of her pro-Kremlin opponents in a second round of voting on Nov. 3 if no candidate on Sunday receives more than 50% of the vote.  

The campaign has already resulted in a shift for the country wedged between Romania, an EU member, and Ukraine. While most of its biggest trading partner a decade ago was Russia, some 70% of its exports — mostly fruit and wine — now go to the EU.  

But Moscow still wields influence. Although the EU has helped the country restore energy supplies cut off by the Kremlin, Russian troops have a presence in the breakaway region of Transnistria. Gagauzia, an autonomous region to the south of Chisinau, also supports Russia. 

The electoral stakes will also rise next year, when Moldova holds a general election. In that contest, Sandu’s pro-European party may have tougher competition than in the presidential race. 

—With assistance from Maxim Edwards.

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