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(Bloomberg) — The entire US Northeast faces an elevated threat of electricity shortages this winter during extreme cold weather, in part due to limited capacity on natural gas pipelines that supply power plants. 

All US regions have sufficient electricity supplies to meet their needs in normal weather conditions, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. said Thursday in its annual winter reliability assessment. But harsh weather could threaten energy reserves across a broad swath of the country, from the Northeast to the Midwest and Texas. 

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Prolonged cold can cause power plants to break down even as electricity demand soars, while short days with low winds can slash renewable generation. The Northeast, according to NERC, faces the added problem of limited natural gas pipeline capacity hampering the ability of power plants to burn more of the fuel when needed. In last year’s winter assessment, only New England was flagged for pipeline constraints — now, the problem extends as far west as Chicago and as far south as North Carolina. 

Texas doesn’t have a pipeline issue, but the report says its power reserves are threatened by a looming imbalance between supply and demand. Since 2023, the state’s electricity demand has risen 2 gigawatts, NERC said. But the amount of “dispatchable” resources — power plants that can run at any time — has grown by only 1 gigawatt, roughly enough for 200,000 homes. Texas endured days of blackouts during a February 2021 winter storm that killed more than 200 people. 

Some of the risks this coming winter remain unknown. The US Southeast is still recovering from significant damage caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton this fall, and NERC is monitoring the local grid to see how this impacts winter reliability. 

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