Fed’s Goolsbee Says Inflation Can Be a Bit Higher, Still on Path to 2%

Fed’s Goolsbee Says Inflation Can Be a Bit Higher, Still on Path to 2%

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(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said slightly higher inflation data for a few months would still be consistent with a path back to the central bank’s 2% goal.

“Rate cuts should be tied to confidence in being on a path toward the target,” Goolsbee said in prepared remarks Wednesday at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “More data like we have seen in the past six months would indicate that path, but that’s probably too stringent.”

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“Even if inflation comes in a bit higher for a few months (as many forecasts suggest), it would still be consistent with our path back to target,” he said.  

Goolsbee’s comments come just a day after a closely watched inflation measure rose by more than forecast in January. Excluding food and energy, the consumer price index rose by the most in eight months, stalling recent disinflation progress and leading market participants to ratchet down their expectations for an interest-rate cut before July. 

The Chicago Fed president, who does not vote on policy decisions this year, emphasized it’s important not to judge the inflation trend from one month’s number and that the Fed’s 2% target is based on the personal consumption expenditures price index, not CPI. He noted that the two metrics can differ “somewhat significantly.”

“I don’t support waiting until inflation on a 12-month basis has already achieved 2% to begin to cut rates,” said Goolsbee, adding that the central bank’s current policy stance is “quite restrictive.”

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Goolsbee noted how inflation expectations have “remained in check,” which he said is evidence of the Fed’s credibility. 

“The Federal Reserve promised to get inflation back down to target, and it backed up its words by increasing the federal funds rate over 500 basis points,” he said. “And the markets believed the Fed.” 

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